US Green-Card Freeze: A Warning for Indian IT Industry
GTRI warns Indian IT companies like TCS, Infosys, and Wipro to prepare for wider US restrictions after a green-card sponsorship freeze.
The Indian Information Technology (IT) sector has been issued a stern warning following the United States government's decision to freeze new and pending green-card sponsorship applications at several major technology firms. According to a report by the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI), this move serves as a precursor to potentially wider restrictions on foreign technology workers in the US.
Major Indian IT Giants Affected
On October 8, the US suspended several companies from the Permanent Labour Certification Programme (PERM). This suspension directly impacts the ability of these employers to sponsor foreign workers for permanent residency through PERM-based applications. Among the prominent Indian firms affected are:
- Tata Consultancy Services (TCS)
- Infosys
- Wipro
- HCLTech
The freeze is not limited to Indian companies; it also includes global giants such as Microsoft, Adobe, Cognizant, and Capgemini. However, the report noted that the action appears selective, as other tech behemoths like Amazon, Google, Meta, Apple, and IBM were not included in this specific crackdown.
What This Means for Workers and Companies
It is important to distinguish between different visa types. The current freeze specifically targets PERM-based green-card sponsorship. It does not, at this stage, prevent companies from applying for H-1B visas under standard regulations, nor does it cancel the existing H-1B status of employees already in the US.
Despite this, the GTRI warns that the move creates significant uncertainty. For employees, the path to permanent residency has become clouded, and for companies, long-term staffing strategies in the United States are now under threat. The report suggests that the industry must prepare for restrictions that could eventually expand to include H-1B hiring, skilled-worker mobility, and outsourcing.
Analyzing the Economic Impact
The US market remains a cornerstone of India's digital economy. In the fiscal year 2025-26, the US accounted for USD 119.7 billion, or approximately 54.1 per cent, of India's total software and IT-enabled services exports, which stood at USD 221.4 billion.
However, there is a silver lining in how services are delivered. The report highlights a shift in the IT delivery model:
- 91.7 per cent of India's global software exports are delivered directly from India.
- Only 8.3 per cent are delivered by professionals working on-site at overseas client locations.
Applying these global trends to the US market, it is estimated that roughly USD 109.8 billion of services are provided from within India, while only USD 9.9 billion are handled through on-site work. This suggests that while the green-card freeze is a concern, the immediate disruption to IT projects may be limited due to the high volume of remote delivery.
Strategic Shifts and the Rise of GCCs
The tightening of US immigration policy could inadvertently benefit India's domestic tech ecosystem. The restrictions may encourage multinational corporations to expand their Global Capability Centres (GCCs) within India. By moving more engineering work and specialized teams to India, these companies could drive local job creation and enhance India's role in global technology development.
To navigate this volatile landscape, the GTRI has recommended several strategic moves for Indian IT firms:
- Diversify Export Markets: Reducing heavy reliance on the US market.
- Strengthen Local Delivery: Increasing the capability to deliver services directly from India.
- Expand US Local Hiring: Growing their domestic workforce within the United States to mitigate visa dependency.
- Focus on High-Value Tech: Prioritizing Artificial Intelligence (AI) and other advanced technologies to reduce vulnerability to policy shifts.