Trump's Midterm Setback May Fast-Track India-US Trade Deal
GTRI founder Ajay Srivastava suggests Donald Trump's midterm election setback could accelerate an India-US trade agreement within two months.
A significant political blow to US President Donald Trump in the November 2026 midterm elections could unexpectedly accelerate the timeline for an India-US trade deal. According to Ajay Srivastava, Founder of the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI), the President may now be motivated to secure a major international victory to offset his domestic losses, potentially concluding the agreement within the next two months.
Political Pressure as a Catalyst
The midterm elections on November 3 saw a historic shift in power, with Democrats winning full control of both chambers of the U.S. Congress. This ends the Republican Party's unified grip on Washington and leaves President Trump in a weakened position midway through his term.
Speaking in an exclusive conversation with ANI, Srivastava noted that this domestic constraint could nudge Trump to focus more intensely on global trade. "With Trump weakened in the domestic field, he will have only trade to concentrate and I think he will push for an early India-US trade deal," Srivastava explained, suggesting the deal might happen much sooner than previously anticipated.
The Negotiation Leverage: Tariffs and Russian Oil
While the political climate may speed up the process, the road to a final agreement is not without friction. Srivastava indicated that Washington might still use the threat of additional tariffs as a bargaining chip, specifically linked to India's continued purchase of Russian crude oil.
Rather than the extreme tariffs discussed in the past, the US might now lean toward imposing duties in the range of 17–19 per cent to encourage India to sign the proposed agreement.
Timeline and Progress
Negotiations are believed to be nearing completion, with senior ministers and officials from both nations already engaged in deep discussions. Srivastava pointed to the proposed Graham Act, which suggested a 60-day window for the US administration to make a decision. Since part of that period has already passed, a conclusion is expected within approximately two months.
GTRI Raises Red Flags
Despite the potential for a quick deal, the GTRI has issued a cautionary note in its latest report. The organization warns that a faster deal does not necessarily mean a more fair or less restrictive trade policy from the US.
Key concerns highlighted by the GTRI include:
- Tariff Imbalance: The proposed framework suggests India would reduce its tariffs, while the US would maintain its regular Most Favoured Nation (MFN) duties.
- WTO Compliance: There are fears that the arrangement could breach India's commitments under World Trade Organization rules, thereby weakening India's future negotiating power.
- Protectionism: The report emphasizes that Washington's broader protectionist approach is likely to remain unchanged regardless of the midterm results.
The Economic Stakes
The urgency of the deal is underscored by the massive volume of trade between the two giants. In 2025, bilateral trade in goods reached USD 149.42 billion, with India exporting USD 103.82 billion to the US and importing USD 45.6 billion.
The services sector is equally robust, with bilateral services trade recorded at USD 92.23 billion in 2025. India exported USD 48.67 billion in services to the US, while importing USD 43.56 billion.
The path toward this agreement began in February, when India and the US announced a framework for an Interim Agreement on reciprocal and mutually beneficial trade. This was furthered in June when U.S. Trade Representative Ambassador Jamieson Greer met with Union Minister of Commerce and Industry Piyush Goyal in New Delhi to review the core elements of the Broad Trade Agreement (BTA) and push the interim deal forward.