Republican Midterm Win Could Hit India Hard: Expert Warns
Expert Waiel Awwad warns that a Republican victory in US midterms could lead to stricter H-1B visas and tariff pressures for India.
A potential Republican victory in the upcoming US midterm elections could bring significant challenges for India, according to foreign affairs expert Waiel Awwad. Speaking to ANI, Awwad highlighted that if President Donald Trump retains unchecked power, India could face a "negative impact" primarily through stricter immigration curbs, pressures on tariffs, and restrictions on H-1B visas.
The Tension Between Strategy and Policy
Awwad noted a complex dichotomy in the current US-India relationship. On one hand, the United States views India as an indispensable strategic partner, particularly within the framework of the Quad and broader Indo-Pacific security interests. The US desires India to play a major role in these geopolitical arenas.
However, Awwad argued that President Trump's unilateral approach to policy has often diverged from the core foundations of the India-US strategic partnership. While there has been visible praise and appeasement toward the Indian government in recent talks, Awwad suggests this may be a tactical move to exert pressure for more favorable commercial deals and to resolve ongoing tariff disputes.
Key Areas of Concern for India
- H-1B Visas: Stricter immigration laws could lead to visa restrictions, which remain a primary concern for the Indian government and professionals.
- Trade and Tariffs: A Republican-led administration may push harder for commercial concessions and raise issues regarding tariffs.
- Healthcare Laws: The implementation of strict domestic laws in the US could have ripple effects on international partnerships.
The Stakes of the November 8 Midterms
Describing the November 8 midterms as some of the most important in modern American history, Awwad pointed out that the outcome will determine whether President Trump is "handicapped" in implementing his personal agenda. If the Republican Party loses control of both houses of Congress, the President's ability to act unilaterally would be significantly curtailed.
Current indicators suggest the Republicans may face setbacks. Awwad attributed this potential loss to domestic economic dissatisfaction, specifically the surge in gasoline prices—rising from USD 4.2 to USD 6.5—which has eroded the President's popularity among American voters.
Geopolitical Ramifications and West Asia
Beyond the India-US relationship, Awwad discussed the implications for global security, particularly in West Asia. He claimed that Trump has previously entered conflicts via executive orders without direct threats to American citizens or interests, alleging that he was under tremendous pressure from the Prime Minister of Israel.
"I believe this is very important because he went unilaterally into the war... most of the American lawmakers have said this is a violation of the Constitution of the United States."
Awwad suggested that if the Republicans lose their congressional majorities, any future military action—specifically regarding Iran—would likely require a vote in Congress, providing a critical check on the President's power to conduct war.