Nepal Braces for 200mm Rain as Bay of Bengal Storm Brews
Nepal faces a warning of up to 200mm of rain next week due to a Bay of Bengal cyclonic storm. Experts warn of risks to harvest and Himalayan travel.
Nepal is on high alert as meteorologists warn of a potential deluge of up to 200 millimetres of rain next week. This weather system is being driven by a cyclonic storm currently developing in the Bay of Bengal, which is expected to intensify and bring significant precipitation to the country.
The Forecast: Timing and Intensity
According to meteorologist Binod Pokharel, the wet spell is anticipated to stretch from next Wednesday (October 28) through Sunday (November 1). Pokharel noted that the total rainfall in some areas could exceed 200 millimetres. However, he clarified that this amount is not expected to fall in a single day, but rather accumulate over the period.
The impact of this rainfall will depend heavily on the prevailing conditions and the prevailing geography of Nepal's diverse terrain. Pokharel warned that such a volume of rain over a short period would be hazardous even during the peak monsoon season, let alone during this time of year.
Risks to Agriculture and Tourism
The danger is not just about the rain itself, but the timing. Nepal is currently in the middle of paddy harvesting, and it is peak season for tourists and trekkers in the Himalayan regions. Heavy rain could devastate crops and potentially strand travelers.
In the high-altitude Himalayan regions, the risks are even more severe. Experts warn of the possibility of heavy snowfall, extreme cold, and the threat of avalanches, making travel in these mountains potentially perilous.
A Haunting Reminder of the Past
Meteorologist Pokharel highlighted a a resemblance between the current weather pattern and the conditions that led to the 2014 blizzard. That event, linked to Cyclone Hudhud, resulted in the deaths of 43 people, including those in the trekking regions around Annapurna. While he states that the current forecasts show similar indicators, he urges that better preparation and advance alert systems will hopefully prevent a similar tragedy.
The Science Behind the Storm
The Department of Hydrology and Meteorology in Nepal has reported that a low-pressure area formed over the east-central and southeastern Bay of Bengal on Friday morning. This system is expected to intensify into a cyclonic storm by Monday.
Once it reaches cyclonic storm status, the system is projected to move in a west-northwesterly direction, making landfall along the coasts of northern Andhra Pradesh and southern Odisha in India. This movement is likely to what trigger the weather system that will eventually affect Nepal.
Official Advice and Temperature Drops
Thep Department of Hydrology and Meteorology has cautioned that while it is not yet possible to determine the exact amount of rainfall or the level of risk with certainty, all concerned parties—particularly those in the tourism and tourism sectors—should remain alert. They have also forecast a slight decline in both maximum and minimum temperatures across the country over the coming week.
"Please plan your travel only after checking weather updates and official advisories," warned Binod Pokharel.