Nepal forms seven-member expert panel to probe Tibet-Nepal floods

The committee brings together a diverse range of scientific disciplines to tackle the complex disaster. The members include hydrologist Narendra Man Shakya, glaciologist Rijan Bhakta Kayastha, and remote-sensing expert Uttam Babu Shrestha. They will be joined by geologist Meghraj Dhital, hydropower infrastructure expert Hari Pandit, and disaster-risk reduction expert Anil Pokharel.

Ministry spokesperson Mohan Kumar Shakya informed ANI that the team will conduct intensive field studies. These studies will span from the potential point of origin of the flood through the Bhotekoshi/Lhende river system all the way to the downstream areas. The investigation aims to uncover the scientific origin and the exact sequence of events that led to the flooding.

Beyond just looking at the cause, the investigation will also focus on future prevention. The committee is tasked with determining how hydropower and other vital energy infrastructure can be better protected from similar disasters in the future. To achieve this, officials stated that the team will utilize drones, satellite imagery, and various other advanced technologies as necessary during the study.

Addressing cascading hazards and scientific gaps

Mohan Kumar Shakya added that the committee will not view the event simply as a standard case of extreme rainfall or flooding. Instead, the team will study it as a “cascading disaster,” a phenomenon where Himalayan, geological, and hydrological hazards may have been activated one after another in a sequence.

This approach follows a preliminary study by the Center for Hydrology and Water Resources Research. That study, conducted days after the disaster hit the Himalayan Nation, noted that there was currently insufficient scientific evidence to establish exactly where the flood originated. The preliminary findings also lacked clarity on what physical processes triggered the event and how those processes spread downstream through the Bhotekoshi-Lhende river system.

Because of these gaps, the centre recommended a comprehensive scientific investigation of the entire sequence of events. This is necessary before any conclusive attribution can be made regarding the role of climate change in the disaster. The committee will use lessons learned from the damage to energy infrastructure to recommend measures for risk preparedness.

A three-phase scientific approach

The Ministry has planned to conduct this complex study in three distinct phases. In the first phase, the committee will examine the chronology of events and the physical damage sustained in areas ranging from the high Himalayan region through the Bhotekoshi/Lhende river system to the downstream areas. This phase will also examine the interrelationship between glaciers, landslides, debris, river flow, flooding, and the instability of rock and soil-slopes.

During the second phase, the experts will move to identify the immediate and underlying physical causes of the flood. In areas identified as potential sources, the team will study geological conditions, including:

• Rock conditions and cracks
• Weak geological formations
• Slope stability
• The possibility of landslides
• The amount and characteristics of sediment entering the river

In the third phase, the committee will move into a scientific assessment of human-induced climate change. They will evaluate the extent to which climate change contributed to the likelihood or intensity of these hazards or helped create the conditions preceding the event. This will involve a deep analysis of rainfall, temperature, snowfall, snow melting, river flow, and long-term weather and climate trends.

International cooperation and data comparison

To ensure a complete picture, the Energy Ministry plans to incorporate scientific and hydrological information available from the Chinese side into the investigation. Spokesperson Shakya noted that where necessary, mechanisms for scientific cooperation and data sharing will be developed to facilitate the study.

There is also a distinction to be made regarding previous climate studies. A World Weather Attribution study regarding extreme rainfall, floods, and landslides in Nepal from September 26-28, 2024, had previously pointed to effects associated with human-induced climate change. However, the ministry stated that the current event may be different in nature.

The current investigation will not be directly compared with the 2024 disaster. Instead, the ministry emphasized that the investigation will be based strictly on the evidence specific to this new event to ensure accuracy.