Govt must plan early imports to contain Maharashtra drought impact: Experts
Experts warn that Maharashtra's massive drought could trigger national shortages in sugarcane, soybean, and pulses, urging early government import planning.
The declaration of drought across 265 taluks in Maharashtra—covering approximately 74 per cent of the state's agricultural land—has sent shockwaves through the agricultural sector. Experts are warning that the severe lack of rainfall could devastate crop production, disrupt food supplies, and hit rural incomes, creating a ripple effect that extends far beyond state borders to national markets.
National production at risk
Agriculture economist G Chandrashekhar highlighted that because Maharashtra is a vital contributor to India's Kharif agriculture basket, its current drought-like conditions are poised to pull down national production figures for several essential commodities. The state's struggle is expected to impact the yields of sugarcane, soybean, cotton, and key pulses such as tur and urad.
The scale of the potential deficit is significant:
- Sugarcane: Maharashtra typically accounts for about 35 per cent of India's output. National production could drop to 440-450 million tonnes, down from the expected 500 million tonnes.
- Soybean: The state's usual production of 5-6 million tonnes is expected to suffer.
- Cotton: Output of approximately 7.5-8 million bales is likely to be affected.
While the immediate price impact might remain muted during the October and November harvesting period, Chandrashekhar warns that shortages will become visible after December, leading to significant price pressure.
Wider economic and industrial consequences
The crisis extends beyond food on the plate. Commodity expert Vijay Sardana noted that the drought could disrupt critical industrial supply chains. For instance, a shortage in sugarcane presents a dual challenge, threatening both sugar supplies and ethanol production. Similarly, lower maize output could negatively impact poultry feed and the ethanol industry.
The impact on specific crops like onions, which are concentrated in Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, and Gujarat, could lead to rapid price spikes due to limited storage capacity and supply constraints. Furthermore, reduced soybean and pulse production is expected to increase inflationary pressure, widen the trade deficit, and increase the national import bill.
Call for proactive government intervention
Experts are urging the Government of India to move away from reactive measures and toward early contingency planning. Rather than waiting for shortages to become acute, the government is being advised to assess crop shortages early and plan imports for essential commodities immediately.
Sardana suggested that the government should also consider the transition of farmers toward more water-conservative crops and ensure that the necessary seed varieties are available. He emphasized that if the data indicates a critical situation, the government must act now to plan imports instead of waiting for a full-blown crisis to unfold.
To cushion the supply shock, continued imports of pulses and cotton are seen as vital. While the government has kept the pulse import policy open until March 2027, higher edible oil imports are also expected to be necessary due to weaker oilseed production.