Israel Election Deadlock: Final Polls Show Netanyahu and Opposition Short of Majority
Final polls ahead of Israel's national election suggest a political deadlock as neither Netanyahu nor the opposition hit the 61-seat majority mark.
As Israel prepares to head to the polls next Tuesday, the latest data suggests the country is staring down a continued political stalemate. Final opinion polls released by major Israeli media outlets indicate that neither Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's governing coalition nor the opposition-led "change bloc" is projected to secure the 61 seats necessary for a majority in the Knesset.
A Fragmented Political Landscape
The surveys, aired by prominent television channels on Friday, highlight a volatile electoral environment where several smaller parties are expected to fail to cross the electoral threshold. This potential wipeout of minor factions could further complicate the process of forming a stable governing coalition after the votes are tallied.
One of the most striking revelations across the surveys is the rise of Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar party. In two of the three major polls, Yashar is projected to emerge as the largest single faction, potentially overtaking Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud party.
Breaking Down the Polls
Three major broadcasters provided slightly different projections, but all pointed toward a lack of a clear winner:
Channel 13 Projections
Conducted by Shmuel Rosner and Noah Slepkov with 1,875 respondents, this poll predicts:
- Change Bloc: 54 seats
- Netanyahu Loyalists: 50 seats
- Arab Parties: 16 seats
- Individual Party Leads: Yashar (22), Likud (19), B'Yachad (14), and Democrats (10).
- Other Parties: The Joint List (9), Yisrael Beytenu, Otzma Yehudit, United Torah Judaism, and Religious Zionism are all projected at 8 seats each, while Shas and Ra'am are at 7.
Channel 12 Projections
This survey, conducted by Manu Geva of Midgam with 1,018 respondents, suggests:
- Change Bloc: 56 seats
- Governing Coalition: 50 seats
- Arab Parties (Joint List and Ra'am): 14 seats
- Individual Party Leads: Yashar (23), Likud (21), B'Yachad (15), and Democrats (10).
Kan Public Broadcaster Projections
The survey by Dudu Hasid of the Kantar Institute, involving 1,106 respondents, forecasts:
- Change Bloc: 52 seats
- Netanyahu Coalition: 50 seats
- Arab Parties: 14 seats
- Notable Entry: Unlike the other polls, Kan predicts Yoaz Hendel's Reservists party will enter the Knesset with 4 seats.
The Struggle for Survival
While some parties are surging, others are facing extinction. The polls consistently show that Ofer Winter's People of Israel party and Moti Leitner's Charedi Public party are likely to fall short of the electoral threshold. Yoaz Hendel's Reservists party is in a precarious position, projected to enter the Knesset in only one of the three surveys.
Adding to the uncertainty, a pre-election poll by Zman Yisrael suggested an even tighter race, projecting a dead heat with 51 seats each for the two primary Jewish-led blocs.
What Happens Next?
With no single bloc reaching the 61-seat magic number, the path to power remains murky. The formation of a government may force parties to reconsider previous campaign promises and potentially enter into unlikely alliances with factions they had previously vowed to avoid.
These surveys were released just before a legal ban on publishing election polls took effect on Saturday. The nation now awaits Tuesday's vote, with exit polls expected to be released at 10 pm as polling stations close.