Israel Election Exit Polls: Netanyahu and Eisenkot Deadlocked in High-Stakes Battle
Exit polls show neither Benjamin Netanyahu nor Gadi Eisenkot secured a majority in Israel's election, with Arab parties as potential kingmakers.
Israel is facing a political stalemate following its general election, with Israel election exit polls indicating that neither the incumbent Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu nor his primary challenger Gadi Eisenkot has secured a clear path to power. According to projections released by Channels 11, 12, and 13, both major political blocs have fallen short of the 61-seat majority required in the Knesset to form a government.
A Divided Knesset: The Numbers
The electoral landscape appears deeply fractured. The opposition bloc—which includes Yashar, B’Yachad, Yisrael Beytenu, and the Democrats—is forecast to win between 50 and 53 seats. On the other side, Benjamin Netanyahu’s alliance is projected to secure approximately 50 seats.
While the Likud party remains the single largest entity in the legislature with a projected 24 to 25 seats, Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party is close behind, expected to claim between 21 and 23 seats. This deadlock means that neither camp can unilaterally establish a governing coalition, leaving the nation in a state of political uncertainty.
The Kingmakers: Arab Factions
With the two main blocs unable to reach the majority threshold, the focus now shifts to the Arab factions. The Joint List and Ra’am are anticipated to collectively capture 17 to 18 parliamentary seats, effectively positioning them as the "kingmakers" of the upcoming coalition negotiations.
However, a partnership remains unlikely for many. Most opposition figures have dismissed the idea of collaborating with Arab parties, with Yair Golan of the Democrats being a notable exception to this stance.
Historic Voter Turnout
One of the most striking aspects of this election is the unprecedented level of citizen engagement. Data from the Central Elections Committee reveals that voter participation has reached its highest point in over 50 years.
- By 12 PM: Turnout stood at 31.5%.
- By 4 PM: Participation climbed to 55.7%, surpassing previous benchmarks.
- By 6 PM: Turnout hit 66.7%, a nine-percentage-point increase compared to the same hour in the previous general election.
- By 8 PM: Overall turnout reached 74.3%, significantly higher than the 70.63% recorded in 2022.
Right-Wing Setbacks and Final Appeals
Netanyahu’s efforts to consolidate a right-wing majority have been further complicated by the failure of smaller factions. Minor right-wing parties, including Yoaz Hendel’s The Reservists-Economic party and Ofer Winter’s People of Israel, are projected to miss the mandatory 3.25 per cent electoral threshold required to enter parliament.
As the polls neared closing, the rhetoric between the leaders intensified. Prime Minister Netanyahu issued an urgent video appeal, warning Likud supporters that high turnout among rivals and Arab parties could lead to a "leftist government." He urged conservative voters to avoid splinter parties and rally their neighbors to ensure a victory for Likud.
In response, Gadi Eisenkot, chairman of the Yashar Party, accused the Prime Minister of using "tricks, lies and intimidation" in a desperate attempt to manipulate the electorate into mobilizing.