India's rooftop solar capacity could hit 132 GW by 2030, says ISMA
India's rooftop solar sector is poised for massive growth, with the potential to reach a staggering 132 gigawatts (GW) by the year 2030. According to a recent report by the Indian Solar Manufacturers Association (ISMA), the industry is currently sitting at an installed capacity of 17 GW, leaving a massive untapped potential of nearly 115 GW within the residential segment alone.
This significant gap presents a major opportunity for the domestic manufacturing sector. The industry expects an annual demand ranging between 9 GW and 15 GW through 2030, which would create a massive pipeline for local producers of solar cells, modules, inverters, and various balance-of-system components.
Market Projections and Manufacturing Opportunities
To arrive at these figures, ISMA analyzed several key factors, including national residential electricity consumption patterns and household housing characteristics. They also took into account the existing distribution-utility tariff structures across the country.
The association believes that the residential rooftop market has entered a phase of sustained scale-up. This positioning suggests the sector is entering a major expansion phase that will occur between 2026 and 2030. The projected installation pace of 9 to 15 GW annually offers a significant lifeline for Indian component manufacturers looking to decrease their reliance on foreign supply chains.
Impact of Government Schemes and Policy Support
The report highlights the "Affordability Effect" triggered by the central government's PM Surya Ghar Muft Bijli Yojana. This specific scheme has been instrumental in broadening solar adoption into new regions. Previously, installations were mostly driven by natural economic viability in certain states, but the scheme has expanded the consumer base and supported local supply chains nationwide.
Amit Manohar, the Secretary General of ISMA, noted that central interventions have had a real operational impact on regional markets. He stated that the PM Surya Ghar scheme has played an important role in expanding residential rooftop solar adoption, particularly in markets where project economics have historically been challenging.
The Need for Long-Term Policy Clarity
While the current momentum is positive, ISMA is calling for administrative clarity regarding future policy phases. As the current programme is scheduled to run until March 2027, the association believes that early guidance on what comes next is vital for market stability.
Manohar suggested that providing clarity on the next phase, potentially a PM Surya Ghar 2.0, by December 2026 would be ideal. Uninterrupted policy support past March 2027 is essential to preserve the current deployment momentum. Such institutional visibility is required for manufacturers to commit the long-term capital investments needed to expand factory capacities and secure domestic supply chains.