Gold Rally to Resume? Prices May Climb Again Over Next Year
Kama Jewellery MD Colin Shah predicts gold prices will climb again over the next year due to global uncertainty and US Fed rates.
After a period of moderation in recent weeks, the gold market is poised for a comeback. According to Colin Shah, the Managing Director of Kama Jewellery, the gold price outlook India and globally suggests that the recent dip was merely a correction before a potential new upward journey over the next twelve months.
Global Drivers Behind the Price Shift
Speaking in an exclusive interview with ANI, Shah clarified that the recent decline in international gold prices was not triggered by Indian market factors but was driven by global dynamics. He highlighted two primary drivers that dictate gold pricing on a global scale:
- The US Dollar: Gold typically maintains an inversely proportional relationship with the strength of the US dollar.
- Federal Reserve Interest Rates: Decisions made by the US Fed regarding interest rates significantly influence investor appetite for gold.
Shah noted that international prices had fallen by approximately 25–27 per cent from their peak before reaching a state of stability. While the market is currently in a phase of consolidation, he expects momentum to return shortly.
The Indian Context: Why Domestic Prices Stayed Firm
While international markets saw a correction, Indian consumers didn't experience a similar plunge in domestic rates. Shah explained that two key factors acted as a cushion for the Indian market:
- Import Duty: A 15 per cent import duty kept prices supported.
- Currency Depreciation: The rupee depreciated by nearly 3–5 per cent, offsetting some of the global price drops.
Consequently, domestic gold prices remained largely stable, fluctuating between Rs 1.3 lakh and Rs 1.5 lakh. For context, 24-karat gold had previously hit an all-time high of Rs 1,75,340 per 10 grams on January 29, 2026. At the time of reporting, it was trading around Rs 1,44,903 per 10 grams.
Festive Demand and the Wedding Season
Despite the high price points, the appetite for gold in India remains insatiable. Shah reported that demand has been "very strong" throughout the festive calendar, spanning from Raksha Bandhan and Navratri to the current preparations for Dhanteras.
The outlook remains bullish as the country enters the wedding season. With a massive volume of weddings scheduled annually during this window, the demand for jewellery is expected to receive a significant boost.
Gold as a Long-Term Hedge
Shah emphasized that Indian consumers view gold through a lens of long-term investment rather than short-term speculation. Purchases are deeply tied to emotional milestones, weddings, and generational wealth building. He observed that customers often prefer exchanging old jewellery for new designs rather than selling their gold for cash.
"At every drop, it's a great price to buy," Shah remarked, suggesting that price corrections provide an ideal window for investors to average their purchases over a five-to-ten-year horizon.
With continuing global uncertainty expected over the next two years, the industry expert believes the stage is set for gold to reclaim its upward trajectory.