Middle East Chaos: Global Refinery Inputs Plunge 6% as Crude Supplies Hit
Middle East conflict and Strait of Hormuz disruptions cause global refinery inputs to plunge 6% in Q2, sending diesel prices to record highs.
The global energy landscape faced a severe shock in the second quarter of 2026 as global refinery inputs plummeted by 6 per cent. This sharp decline was triggered by the outbreak of conflict in the Middle East, which crippled crude oil supplies flowing through the critical Strait of Hormuz, sending ripples of instability through major Asian and Middle Eastern economies.
According to data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) and energy intelligence firm Kpler, global refinery throughput dropped by 4.8 million barrels per day (b/d) during the April-June quarter compared to the preceding quarter.
The Hormuz Bottleneck: Asia and Middle East Hit Hard
The disruption was most severe for nations that rely heavily on the Strait of Hormuz for their energy security. China bore the brunt of the crisis, seeing its refinery inputs crash by 2.1 million b/d in the second quarter, with a further dip of 0.8 million b/d in the third quarter.
Other major Asian players were not spared. India, South Korea, and Japan collectively witnessed a decline of over 1 million b/d in the second quarter, though they managed a partial recovery of 0.8 million b/d in the following period.
Within the Middle East, the restrictions on shipping through the strait didn't just stop crude from leaving; they limited the export of refined petroleum products. The impact was felt across the region's powerhouses:
- Kuwait and UAE: Inputs dropped by 0.7 million b/d each.
- Saudi Arabia: Inputs fell by 0.3 million b/d.
- Iran: Inputs declined by 0.2 million b/d.
While these four nations saw a combined increase of 0.4 million b/d in the third quarter, the initial shock remained significant.
Russian Infrastructure Under Fire
While the Middle East was in turmoil, Russia's refining capabilities were under a different kind of pressure. The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict saw an escalation in attacks on oil infrastructure, which severely hampered production.
Russian crude oil inputs fell by 0.6 million b/d in the second quarter and dropped by another 0.8 million b/d in the third quarter. This double blow to Russian refining activity tightened an already strained global diesel market.
Diesel Prices Hit Record Highs
The perfect storm of disruptions across Russia, Asia, and the Middle East led to a crisis in fuel availability. The EIA reported that these combined failures pushed diesel prices to their highest nominal levels ever recorded in September.
The US Pivot: Filling the Gap
As the rest of the world struggled, the United States moved to fill the void. In a stark contrast to the global trend, US refinery inputs increased by 0.5 million b/d in both the second and third quarters. The US ramped up its refined product exports to compensate for the shortages gripping other parts of the globe.
A Slow Recovery
Although there was a slight rebound in the third quarter—with global throughput recovering by 1.8 million b/d as refiners found alternative supply routes and adjusted trade flows—the scars of the conflict remain. Global refinery inputs stayed approximately 5 per cent lower than the levels seen during the same period in 2025, proving that the global energy system is still struggling to fully recover despite improving crude oil flows.