China's 'Salami Slicing' in Arunachal: JNU Professor Warns of Conflict Risk
Prof. Srikanth Kondapalli warns that China's 'salami slicing' strategy and military deployments along the LAC increase the risk of conflict.
A prominent expert in Chinese Studies from Jawaharlal Nehru University (JNU), Professor Srikanth Kondapalli, has raised a red flag regarding China's strategic maneuvers along the Arunachal Pradesh border. Describing the approach as "salami slicing," Kondapalli warned that the persistent deployment of troops and offensive weapon systems near the Line of Actual Control (LAC) significantly heightens the risk of a future military escalation between India and China.
The Pattern of Border Transgressions
Speaking to ANI, Professor Kondapalli highlighted that border transgressions are not isolated incidents but a recurring feature of the India-China frontier. He pointed out a startling statistic: there are typically between 300 to 400 transgressions annually—averaging nearly one incident per day—even during periods when both nations publicly maintain that stability prevails along the LAC.
According to the professor, these incursions generally fall into two categories:
- Unintentional: Resulting from the treacherous high-altitude terrain and extreme weather conditions.
- Intentional: Deliberate attempts to assert territorial claims and expand perceived boundaries.
It is these deliberate moves that Kondapalli finds most concerning, as they often lead to direct confrontations between patrolling forces.
Mapping the 'Salami Slicing' Strategy
The term "salami slicing" refers to a strategy of making small, incremental advances that, while minor individually, result in significant territorial gains over time. Professor Kondapalli specifically identified the Lungchu area in Arunachal Pradesh's Upper Subansiri district, alleging that Chinese activity has crept into Indian-claimed regions over several decades.
Beyond Lungchu, he noted other sensitive zones where local confrontations and restrictions on movement have sparked alarm, including the Takshing area. The professor listed several hotspots across different sectors where transgressions are frequent:
- Eastern Sector: Asaphila, Lungchu, Namka Chu, Sumdorong Chu, and Yangtse.
- Middle Sector: Barahoti.
- Western Sector (Ladakh): Pangong Tso and Demchok.
The Shadow of Galwan
While many of these incidents remain limited to local skirmishes, Kondapalli warned that they possess the potential to spiral. He cited the June 2020 Galwan Valley clash, which resulted in the deaths of 20 Indian soldiers, as a grim reminder of how a territorial dispute can rapidly evolve into a major military confrontation.
"Any of these transgressions can happen—intentional, unintentional," he explained, noting that the outcome could range from a routine encounter settled by protocol to a serious clash.
The Gap Between Disengagement and De-escalation
A critical point of concern raised by the JNU professor is the incomplete nature of the military withdrawal process. Despite high-level diplomatic efforts, including the meeting between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and President Xi Jinping on September 12 and the Kazan meeting, Kondapalli argues that the situation on the ground remains precarious.
He clarified the vital distinctions between three key military processes:
- Disengagement: Moving troops away from immediate face-to-face positions.
- De-escalation: The withdrawal of offensive weapon systems deployed in close proximity.
- De-induction: The gradual movement of troops from high-altitude posts back to lower elevations for rotation and training.
Kondapalli asserted that while disengagement and patrolling arrangements were announced in October 2024, complete de-escalation and de-induction have not occurred. He warned that because offensive weapon systems remain stationed close to the border, the potential for a sudden crisis remains high.