Ageing Private Jets Could Trigger New Business Aviation Capacity Crunch
A McKinsey report warns that ageing private jets and slow production could trigger a new capacity shortage in the global business aviation industry.
The global business aviation sector is staring at a potential crisis. According to a new report by McKinsey, the industry could be hit by another wave of capacity shortages as a growing number of older private jets reach critical maintenance milestones or face retirement, all while the production of new aircraft remains sluggish.
The Perfect Storm: Ageing Fleets and Slow Production
The industry is currently caught in a vice between rising demand and a stagnant supply of new aircraft. Since the COVID-19 pandemic, the appetite for private air travel has surged, but manufacturers have not kept pace. In 2025, aircraft manufacturers delivered 842 business jets—a figure that is only about 65 per cent of the 1,290 peak recorded back in 2008.
Interestingly, the global business jet fleet actually expanded by 730 aircraft last year. However, this growth wasn't driven by a boom in new production, but rather by a significant drop in retirements. Aircraft retirements plummeted from roughly 300 in 2019 to about 110 in 2025. While keeping these older planes in the air helped operators manage the post-pandemic demand spike, it has created a ticking time bomb.
Maintenance Pressures Mounting
The reliance on older aircraft has led to a structural increase in the demand for Maintenance, Repair, and Overhaul (MRO) services. McKinsey warns that as these jets hit major maintenance milestones, they will either require extensive, time-consuming overhauls or be forced into retirement.
This is happening at a time when overhaul capacity is already stretched thin. The report highlights that the result is an older fleet requiring more care, putting immense pressure on a system that is already struggling to keep up.
Surging Demand vs. Infrastructure Walls
While the supply side is struggling, the demand for business aviation continues to climb. Between 2019 and 2025, global business jet departures grew by an average of 4.9 per cent annually, hitting a record 3.9 million last year. Furthermore, the average aircraft flew approximately 19 per cent more hours in 2025 compared to 2019.
Beyond the planes themselves, the industry is hitting a physical wall. Infrastructure constraints—including a lack of hangar space, limited parking, and a shortage of skilled personnel—are restricting the ability to meet this growing demand. Patrick Gallagher, President of NetJets Aviation, emphasized this struggle, stating that infrastructure remains the single biggest challenge the industry contends with.
The Shift Toward Flexible Ownership
Because direct aircraft ownership has become increasingly difficult due to these constraints, more customers are turning to flexible alternatives. There is a noticeable shift toward:
- Fractional Ownership: Where multiple owners share a jet.
- Charter Services: On-demand hiring of aircraft.
- Jet Cards: Pre-paid flight hours for guaranteed access.
The data reflects this trend: the number of aircraft in fractional ownership fleets jumped from 990 in 2019 to 1,510 in 2025. Their share of total business jet flight hours also rose from 14 per cent to 20 per cent during the same period.
The Path Forward
To navigate this crunch, McKinsey suggests that the industry must act decisively. Recommendations include securing capacity much earlier, improving how aircraft are utilized, and making significant investments in technology, infrastructure, and maintenance.
The report also anticipates a wave of consolidation within the industry, as companies seek the necessary scale to manage the rising demand and expand their capacity in a constrained market.